Stakeholders, including energy experts, economists, and Nigerian workers, have raised alarm over the suspension of petrol imports by the Federal Government, urging urgent price regulation as Dangote Petroleum Refinery takes command of Nigeria’s N14.4tn petrol market, signaling a major shake-up in the nation’s energy sector.
Data from the NMDPRA, a Federal Government agency, showed that Dangote refinery accounted for about 92 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol supply in February, as the regulatory agency stopped the importation of petrol.
Figures released in the February 2026 fact sheet by the NMDPRA showed that local refineries supplied 36.5 million litres per day of petrol in February 2026, while imports contributed just three million litres per day.
This brought the total national daily supply for February to 39.5 million litres, with domestic refining accounting for roughly 92 per cent of the volume, a sharp shift from the long-standing dependence on imported fuel. The data indicates a drastic drop in imports compared with the previous month.
Dangote refinery is the only plant producing petrol currently in Nigeria. Other modular refineries produce diesel. Taking a low-range price of N1,000/litre for petrol, and the total consumption of 39.5 million litres per day in February, it implies that the petrol market in Nigeria is worth over N14.4tn annually. This will however vary from time to time as the global crude price fluctuates.
The confirmation by the NMDPRA that it suspended petrol importation because the country now has enough domestic supply generated diverse reactions from stakeholders on Wednesday.
The NMDPRA warned against the return of petrol imports, as the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, declared during a live television programme on Wednesday that the government would not tamper with market pricing of petroleum products, stressing that intervention would only be considered as a last resort.
“Rather than now reverting and taking a backward step, we will look at every other measure that can help the cost of living of Nigerians without resorting to non-market pricing,” Edun stated.
An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, said the government should allow competitive petrol supply instead of import substitution. While describing that announcement as a significant policy signal, Iledare said it could trigger market speculation and a scramble for market power.
The behaviour, he said, could manifest through precautionary stockholding, opportunistic pricing, or attempts to secure logistical and supply advantages. “The announcement by NMDPRA suspending the issuance of new petrol import licences, on the grounds that local production is sufficient to meet domestic demand, is a significant policy signal in Nigeria’s evolving downstream petroleum market.
“However, such announcements can also trigger market speculation. In a transitioning market structure, participants may interpret regulatory signals differently, leading to strategic positioning and, in some cases, scrabbling for market power. This behaviour can manifest through precautionary stockholding, opportunistic pricing, or attempts to secure logistical and supply advantages,” he said.
The don argued that the data showing reduced imports alongside lower overall PMS supply in February suggested that the market was still searching for equilibrium. “The data showing reduced imports alongside lower overall PMS supply in February suggests that the market is still searching for equilibrium between domestic refining output, inventory management, and distribution capacity.
“For policy effectiveness, regulatory communication must therefore be clear, predictable, and supported by verifiable supply assurance mechanisms. Market confidence improves when participants are certain that domestic production, logistics infrastructure, and pricing frameworks can consistently sustain national demand. Ultimately, the goal should be competitive market stability — not just import substitution,” Iledare submitted.
Also speaking, a professor of energy, Dayo Ayoade, said the NMDPRA is the only agency that knows whether or not the country has enough petrol stock. He said it is the duty of the regulator to ensure the country does not insist on costly importation when there is enough in-country refining. At the same time, he said the NMDPRA has to be careful to ensure the country is not stranded if there is any failure on the part of the Dangote refinery.
“The Petroleum Industry Act is very clear on competition. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, as a regulator, has powers to ensure competition in the downstream sector,” he said.
He added that the heavy dependence on Dangote’s output reflects structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s refining capacity rather than deliberate market control by the refinery. “The fact that they are reliant on Dangote refinery output is because we don’t have functional Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited refineries, and there are no alternatives at the moment,” he said.
According to him, the key responsibility lies with the regulator to ensure transparency in pricing and prevent profiteering. He, however, stressed that the regulator retains the authority to act if the refinery abuses its dominant market position. “But if they find that Dangote is abusing its monopoly privileges, then of course they have the power to penalise the refinery,” he said.
Ayoade added that increased competition would naturally emerge as more refineries come on stream. “The ball is really in the court of the regulator. It has nothing to do with the Dangote refinery. It is not their fault that we haven’t built our refineries to compete with them. As the market matures and other refineries come on stream, we will see more competition, and that will affect pricing,” he said.
The energy law expert also warned that even with multiple refineries in operation, regulators must still guard against anti-competitive behaviour. “Even when we have four refineries working, we still have to keep an eye on competition because they can easily agree and share the market among themselves. So regulation will always remain important,” he added.
Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, warned that relying on a single refinery for the bulk of Nigeria’s petrol supply could expose the country to major supply shocks. He noted that the production boost by the refinery was artificial and not natural.
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